Growth Scenarios for Lam Dong’s Crop Production Sector

Responding to Market and Weather Volatility

Based on the crop production development strategy to 2030, with a vision to 2050, and the province’s double-digit growth target, the agricultural sector has developed specific growth scenarios while introducing a range of measures to proactively respond to market and weather fluctuations.

In 2026, the Central Highlands and South Central Coast are expected to experience climate variability during the ENSO transition period. In Lam Dong, early heatwaves could heighten the risk of localized drought, directly threatening key crops such as coffee and pepper. At the same time, seasonal shifts may bring localized heavy rainfall to parts of the highlands.

According to the Department of Agriculture and Environment, beyond weather-related risks, agricultural markets also pose significant challenges. While certain products such as durian and dragon fruit benefit from official export channels to China, many key commodities—including vegetables, flowers, coffee and pepper—remain heavily reliant on raw exports. In addition, the European Union’s Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR) is imposing urgent compliance requirements on coffee exports. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East also continue to affect the province’s agricultural export sector.

Against this backdrop, Lam Dong’s agricultural sector has developed three growth scenarios for crop production.

Under the optimistic scenario—assuming favorable weather and stable markets—the sector could achieve a growth rate of approximately 5.66% in 2026. The area under high-tech agriculture is projected to exceed 120,000 hectares, with average production value reaching around VND 210 million per hectare. Output of key crops is expected to rise, with vegetables up 11%, flowers up 4.5%, coffee up 5% and durian up 7%.

Under the baseline scenario, reflecting normal production conditions, the sector is projected to grow by approximately 5.5%, with high-tech agricultural land reaching around 119,000 hectares and average production value estimated at VND 207 million per hectare.

In a downside scenario—characterized by prolonged drought, disease outbreaks and input price volatility—growth could decline to around 4.65%.

Key Measures

To achieve the optimistic growth scenario and mitigate potential risks, the provincial agricultural sector is focusing on a range of key measures. These include strengthening weather forecasting and pest monitoring, accelerating the transfer of scientific and technical advances, and promoting high-tech, circular agriculture and digital transformation.

At the same time, stricter management of crop varieties and agricultural inputs will be implemented, alongside support for the development of designated production zones and traceability systems to serve export markets.

Local authorities are also required to proactively regulate water resources, upgrade irrigation systems, guide farmers in adjusting crop structures to suit local conditions, and expand production linkages and cooperative models. Attracting investment in agricultural pre-processing and processing is seen as a crucial solution to enhance value addition in the crop production sector.

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Communes, wards and Phu Quy Special Zone should follow technical guidance and recommendations from competent authorities, ensuring appropriate planting schedules and crop care adapted to local conditions.

Vu Dinh Cuong, Deputy Director of the Department of Agriculture and Environment

Vu Dinh Cuong, Deputy Director of the Department of Agriculture and Environment, also emphasized the need to expand the application of high technology and sustainable farming practices, while strengthening coordination with specialized agencies in pest forecasting and timely disease prevention and control.